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Premier League · Sat 26 April, 17:30 WAT

Arsenal vs Chelsea: prediction and betting preview

Six of Arsenal's last eight home games went over 2.5 goals. Chelsea average 1.9 goals per away game this season. The market knows this. The question is whether you take the total or find something smarter.

By Tolu Shotade · Sat 26 April, 17:30 WAT

Introduction

This is the one fixture in the Premier League calendar where every Nigerian fan has a dog in the fight, whether they back the Gunners or the Blues. I've watched this derby for nine years from the broadcast desk and I'll tell you what the stats have been showing me all week: this is not a 1-0 game. Arsenal are pressing higher than at any point under Arteta, Chelsea's defensive line is high and generous, and the Emirates crowd in late April is the kind of atmosphere that produces early goals. We are going over.

Form and key stats

  • Arsenal: W W D W W in their last 5 at the Emirates. Average 2.4 goals per home game.
  • Chelsea: W L W D L away this season. Conceded in 8 of last 10 away games.
  • H2H: the last 4 meetings at the Emirates produced 9 goals combined (2.25 per game).
  • Arsenal have scored in the first 30 minutes in 7 of their last 10 home games.
  • Chelsea's last 3 away matches went over 2.5 goals, all three at different opponents.

Key stat to know

The xG data for Arsenal at home this season sits at 2.1 per game, top three in the league. Chelsea's defensive xGA away from home is 1.6, which sounds solid until you look at who they've faced in the last month. Arsenal's pressing intensity (PPDA of 7.2, third in the league) will cause Chelsea's central midfield problems. Expect three or four real chances in the first 45.

Our tips for this match

  • Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10 (stake):
  • Arsenal to Win and Over 1.5 Goals at 1.55 (1xbet):

Verdict

This is a 2-1 or 3-1 game, Arsenal win. I have been wrong about Chelsea all season whenever I assumed they were passive, and I'm not going to fall into that trap today. The 2.10 on BTTS and Over 2.5 is the play. If you are building an acca, take Arsenal Win/Over 1.5 at 1.55 and move on. If it's standalone, the combo is the value. Two units from me, no more.

Predictions are for entertainment and research. All betting involves risk. If it’s not fun any more, please stop.