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Bundesliga · Sat 26 April, 17:30 WAT

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and betting preview

Der Klassiker. Four of the last five Der Klassikers produced over 3.5 goals. The bookmakers are pricing Over 3.5 at 2.40. That is the bet.

By Tolu Shotade · Sat 26 April, 17:30 WAT

Introduction

Bayern vs Dortmund is one of those fixtures that makes Sunday morning Twitter very loud. The Bundesliga's Der Klassiker is the loudest stadium in Germany and one of the most aggressively-scored fixtures in top-flight European football. I went end-to-end on the last six meetings before writing this. Five of six went over 2.5. Four of six went over 3.5. That is not noise. That is a sample that tells you something structural about how these two sides meet.

Form and key stats

  • Bayern: W W W W W in last 5. Averaging 3.1 goals scored per game. Clinical.
  • Dortmund: W L W W D in last 5. Scored in all five. Conceded in four of five.
  • H2H last 6: average 4.2 goals per game. Over 3.5 hit in 4 of 6.
  • Bayern have scored 3+ goals at home in 8 of their last 11 Bundesliga home games.
  • Dortmund concede from set pieces in 40% of their away games this season.

Key stat to know

Bayern's Harry Kane has been relentless in home games this season: 18 goals in 16 Bundesliga home games, including 4 in his last 3 at the Allianz. Dortmund's defensive structure away from home has been questionable all season. Their expected goals against away from home is 1.9 per 90. Add Bayern's expected goals at home (2.6 per 90) and the implied total is 4.5 goals per game. The Over 3.5 at 2.40 is the market being cautious about variance. Fair.

Our tips for this match

  • Over 3.5 Goals at 2.40 (1xbet):
  • Bayern Win and Over 2.5 at 1.55 (melbet):

Verdict

Two units on Over 3.5 at 2.40. This is the one fixture in European football where I will take the Over without hesitation. The H2H record backs it, both teams' attacking profiles back it, and even the away team tends to get involved in the goalfest. Bayern Win/Over 2.5 is the acca leg.

Predictions are for entertainment and research. All betting involves risk. If it’s not fun any more, please stop.