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International Friendly · Fri 25 April, 20:00 WAT

Nigeria vs Ghana: prediction and betting preview

Nigeria vs Ghana is never just a friendly. It is a neighbourhood argument played out on a pitch in Abuja with 60,000 people watching. The Eagles have not lost to Ghana in three years. I'm not starting now.

By Tolu Shotade · Fri 25 April, 20:00 WAT

Introduction

Let me be straight about something: Nigeria vs Ghana is the West African derby. It is contested with the intensity of a competitive qualifier even when the result has no standing. I was in Lagos when the Eagles last met Ghana in AFCON qualifying, and the city was not breathing normally for 24 hours before kickoff. That atmosphere translates to Abuja on Friday, and it typically produces an aggressive, physical, early-yellow-card game. I have data and I have a view.

Form and key stats

  • Nigeria: W W D W L in last 5 across all competitions. Victor Osimhen fit and in form.
  • Ghana: D L L W D in last 5. Poor run. Missing key defenders.
  • H2H last 5: Nigeria 3 wins, Ghana 1 win, 1 draw. Nigeria dominant in recent history.
  • Nigeria have kept 2 clean sheets in the last 5 H2H. Both came at home.
  • Ghana average 0.9 goals per game in their last 5 friendlies. Toothless in attack currently.

Key stat to know

Ghana's current form is their worst in five years. They have not scored more than once in any of their last four games. Their star forward is not travelling for this fixture. Against a Nigeria side with Osimhen at his peak and a full squad available, the clean sheet probability for Nigeria is higher than the market suggests. Nigeria Win to Nil is around 2.80 at Bet9ja, which is generous.

Our tips for this match

  • Nigeria to Win at 1.65 (sportybet):
  • Osimhen Anytime Scorer at 1.75 (bet9ja):

Verdict

Nigeria to win at 1.65, two units. And I'm taking Osimhen anytime at 1.75 as a companion. This is a friendly on paper. On the streets of Lagos and Abuja on Friday night, it is not a friendly. Nigeria will approach it with intent. The Eagles win this comfortably, I'm saying 2-0 or 3-0.

Predictions are for entertainment and research. All betting involves risk. If it’s not fun any more, please stop.