Aston Villa vs Tottenham, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Villa sit 5th on 58 pts, level with Man Utd and Liverpool, a home win could move them into 4th
Spurs are 18th with 34 pts, just 2 points from safety, this is effectively a must-win away day for De Zerbi's side
Spurs have lost Xavi Simons for the season and Solanke is a doubt after both were hurt at Wolves on Apr 25, their attack is threadbare
Villa's home record reads W11 D2 L4 this season, with goals averaging 2.65 per home match
Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of all Spurs matches in 2025-26, and Spurs concede 1.35 goals per away game

A top-four push meets a relegation scrap at Villa Park on Sunday evening. Aston Villa need the three points to stay in the Champions League race; Tottenham arrive crippled by injuries, three managers deep, and clinging to survival by two points. Back the hosts.

Kickoff: Sunday 3 May 2026, 19:00 BST (20:00 WAT) at Villa Park

Villa's home form this season is the foundation of the bet. Emery's side have posted an W11 D2 L4 record across 17 home Premier League matches, a 65 per cent win rate, and their home fixtures average 2.65 combined goals. With 58 points - level with both Manchester United and Liverpool heading into Matchweek 35 - Villa cannot afford to drop points here. Emery has already said his focus is entirely on the Premier League despite the Europa League semi-final second leg against Nottingham Forest at Villa Park on May 7. He will start his strongest available XI.

Spurs arrive in crisis. Roberto De Zerbi is their third manager of the season after Thomas Frank was sacked in February and Igor Tudor departed in late March. De Zerbi picked up his first Premier League win at Wolves on April 25 - a narrow 1-0 through a late Palhinha goal - but it cost him two key players. Xavi Simons was stretchered off with a season-ending knee injury, and Dominic Solanke went off with a muscle problem that leaves him doubtful. Add Cristian Romero, Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odobert, and Ben Davies to the absentee list, and Spurs arrive at Villa Park with one of the thinnest squads in the league. De Zerbi's own words before this match: "Now, the first game is Villa Park. And stop. Just it."

The goals market supports the Over 2.5 play strongly. Villa's home over 2.5 rate is 53 per cent and their home average is 2.65 goals per game. Spurs' away fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals in 59 per cent of matches, and over 2.5 has landed in 65 per cent of all Spurs games this season. Spurs concede 1.35 goals per away match against a Villa attack posting a home xG of 1.63 per match. The numbers are clear.

Ollie Watkins is the player to be on. The Villa striker has 11 Premier League goals, ranks 5th in individual xG across the division (13.6 xG), and scored six times in five matches before a blank at Fulham. He will line up against a Spurs centre-back pairing of Danso and Van de Ven - with Romero unavailable - and that is a favourable matchup for Villa's first-choice striker. Richarlison is the entire Spurs threat. Nine league goals and, with Solanke and Simons both out or doubtful, he carries the attack alone. He scored a 90th-minute equaliser at Liverpool under Tudor - he has the quality to deliver in pressure moments.

Take Aston Villa Win and Over 2.5 Goals. Ollie Watkins Anytime Scorer and Richarlison Anytime Scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

Villa have won three of the last five Premier League meetings with Spurs. The reverse fixture this season ended Tottenham 1-2 Aston Villa at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in October 2025. Villa also beat Spurs 2-0 at Villa Park in the final game of last season and knocked them out of the FA Cup in January 2026. Historically Spurs hold the overall advantage in 57 meetings (28 wins to Villa's 17), but recent momentum belongs firmly to the hosts.

Aston Villa Form Analysis

Villa's last five Premier League results read L W D W L. The home performances have been the highlight - a 4-3 thriller against Sunderland on April 19 saw Watkins bag a brace before Tammy Abraham scored a 90th-minute winner from the bench, and West Ham were beaten 2-0 at Villa Park in March. The April 25 defeat at Fulham (0-1) came away from home. Emery confirmed his squad is locked in: "We have to keep fighting." With Barkley and Kamara out and Onana day-to-day, the core of Rogers, Watkins, Buendia, and McGinn is fit and motivated.

Tottenham Hotspur Form Analysis

Spurs' last five reads W D L L D. Their only 2026 league win came at already-relegated Wolves; before that, a 0-3 home demolition by Nottingham Forest ended Tudor's tenure, and a 2-2 draw with Brighton saw them surrender a lead in the 95th minute. They sit 18th on 34 points - two behind West Ham - with four league games remaining. Simons and Solanke have both been lost to injury this week, joining Romero, Kudus, Odobert, Davies, and Kulusevski on the sidelines. Richarlison and Mathys Tel will lead the attack, but without Romero in defence and with a makeshift midfield, this Spurs squad is not built to get a result at Villa Park.

Aston Villa vs Tottenham Team News

Aston Villa: Barkley and Kamara are confirmed out; Onana is day-to-day after missing the Fulham game, while Tielemans is expected to be available as Emery names his strongest available XI.

Tottenham: Simons (knee, season over), Romero (knee), Kudus (thigh), Odobert (ACL), Ben Davies (ankle), and Kulusevski (knee) are all absent; Solanke is a doubt, Vicario may miss out with a head injury, and Kinsky is expected to start in goal with Richarlison as the sole reliable scoring threat.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

Verdict

Aston Villa win at Stake odds of 2.10, backed by a relentless home record, top-four urgency, and a Spurs side that arrives to Villa Park crippled by injuries and carrying only one Premier League win in all of 2026. Over 2.5 Goals is the natural companion, both clubs' matches consistently produce goals, and Spurs' defensive absences will give Watkins and company the space to punish them. Ollie Watkins Anytime Scorer and Richarlison Anytime Scorer round out the card, with Villa's number nine the standout single pick of the weekend.

Tips are for research and entertainment. Odds move. Bet with sense. If it’s not fun any more, please stop.