Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Bournemouth are unbeaten in 13 matches across all competitions, with home xG of 1.64 and xGA of just 1.13 at the Vitality Stadium this season.
Eli Junior Kroupi has scored 4 goals in his last 3 Premier League appearances, including 2 at Arsenal and 2 vs Leeds, and scored twice in the reverse fixture at Selhurst Park.
Crystal Palace arrive on just 3 days' rest after their Conference League semi-final first leg in Kraków, with Nketiah (season over), Muñoz, Doucouré, and Guessand all out, and Mateta, Wharton, and Lacroix all doubts.
Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 5 meetings with Crystal Palace (W2 D3 L0), and the reverse fixture this season produced a 6-goal thriller at Selhurst Park.
Andoni Iraola's confirmed departure at season's end has galvanised this squad, Bournemouth sit 7th, six points clear of 8th, with European qualification squarely in their sights.

Crystal Palace are running on fumes. They flew into Kraków for a Conference League semi-final three days before this game, and Oliver Glasner now brings a battered squad to the Vitality Stadium to face a Bournemouth side that has not lost in 13 matches. The case for the Cherries here is overwhelming.

Kickoff: Sunday 3 May 2026, 14:00 BST (15:00 WAT) at Vitality Stadium

Andoni Iraola confirmed his departure at the end of this season in mid-April, and Bournemouth have responded the only way a well-drilled side can, by winning. Beating Arsenal away 2-1, then going to St James' Park and winning 2-1 again, before dropping points in contentious circumstances against Leeds (Iraola was furious, correctly, about an offside goal that levelled at 2-2), this squad is playing with purpose. Seven points clear of the European places below them and six clear of 8th-placed Chelsea above, qualification is the prize Iraola is chasing in his final weeks.

The numbers back the eye test. Bournemouth's home xG stands at 1.64 per match this season, with xGA of just 1.13 at the Vitality Stadium. Their overall defensive output is solid, 1.49 xGA per match across all venues, and they have posted a home record of W6 D9 L2. Kroupi is the obvious focal point. The French forward has 11 Premier League goals this season, with 4 coming in the last 3 appearances alone. He scored at Arsenal. He scored twice against Leeds. He also scored twice in the 3-3 reverse fixture at Selhurst Park back in October. If Crystal Palace are rotating defenders and managing injuries, Kroupi will find the gaps.

Palace's situation is genuinely severe. Nketiah's season is over (confirmed by Glasner on 10 April). Cheick Doucouré has been out since March with a knee injury. Daniel Muñoz is out with a shoulder problem. Evann Guessand was injured in the Fiorentina second leg on 16 April. That is before the doubts, Mateta (knee), Wharton (adductor), and Lacroix (medial ligament) all face fitness assessments ahead of this. Three days after a European semi-final away leg in Poland. Glasner himself flagged the brutal scheduling: the Premier League moved this fixture from 2 May to 3 May to accommodate Palace's UEFA commitments, but three days is still three days. Stake have Bournemouth to win at 2.50.

The Over 2.5 Goals has support from both sides' attacking profiles. Crystal Palace's season BTTS rate sits at 52% overall and 56% away from home, and their xGA away is 1.47 per match. Bournemouth's home xG of 1.64 points to a productive attacking environment. The 3-3 in October showed both squads can contribute goals, and even a fatigued Palace side still has Ismaïla Sarr, 7 Premier League goals this season, capable of punishing an open game. Kroupi and Marcus Tavernier (brace at Newcastle on 18 April, 5 league goals from midfield) are the primary threats from the home side. Take Bournemouth to win and Over 2.5 Goals. Eli Junior Kroupi anytime scorer and Marcus Tavernier anytime scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last 5 meetings with Crystal Palace, winning 2 and drawing 3. The most recent fixture, played at Selhurst Park on 18 October 2025, finished 3-3, Palace came back from 0-3 down, with Mateta scoring a late hat-trick, after Kroupi had put Bournemouth in control. Before that, the sides played out back-to-back 0-0 draws in December 2024 and April 2025. The last time Palace won at the Vitality Stadium in this fixture was in the 2023-24 season, Bournemouth won 1-0 in April 2024 and Palace won 2-0 at Selhurst Park in December 2023.

Bournemouth Form Analysis

Four matches cover the picture clearly. A 2-2 draw at home to Manchester United on 20 March, Kroupi with a penalty, was followed by the win at Arsenal on 11 April, Kroupi scoring in the 17th and 79th minute for a 2-1 result at the Emirates. Seven days later, Marcus Tavernier scored twice at Newcastle for another 2-1 away win. The last match, a 2-2 draw at home to Leeds on 22 April, should have been a win, Iraola stated clearly after the game that Joel Piroe's equaliser was offside. That draw stopped an active winning run but did nothing to dent the unbeaten sequence, now at 13 matches.

The home record, W6 D9 L2, shows Bournemouth are not conceding many matches at the Vitality Stadium. They have scored 25 home goals and conceded 19 across the season. With Kroupi in the form of his life and Tavernier a consistent scorer from midfield, the attacking unit is functioning. Justin Kluivert, Lewis Cook, Ben Doak, and Julio Soler are all out, but none of those absences touch the starting XI Iraola is expected to field in a 4-2-3-1 with Kroupi at 10, Tavernier on the left, and Evanilson leading the line.

Crystal Palace Form Analysis

Palace's last four Premier League results look deceptively competent, a 3-1 win at Tottenham on 5 March (Sarr with two), a dramatic 2-1 home win over Newcastle on 12 April (Mateta brace, both late), a 0-0 draw at home to West Ham on 20 April, then a 3-1 loss at Liverpool on 25 April with Muñoz grabbing a consolation. The Liverpool defeat was the most telling, Palace were outclassed and could not cope with the tempo.

The deeper concern is not the results but the squad state. Oliver Glasner has been managing a shrinking group for weeks. Eberechi Eze left for Arsenal last summer for £60 million and was never replaced with equivalent quality. Nketiah is done for the season. Doucouré and Muñoz are out. Now Mateta, Wharton, and Lacroix are all question marks going into this game. Palace's Conference League ambition is admirable, reaching a European semi-final is a significant achievement, but the fixture pile-up is punishing a squad that was already stretched.

Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Team News

Bournemouth Team News: Kluivert (knee), Cook (hamstring), Doak (hamstring), Soler (muscle), and Akinmboni are all absent, but the expected starting XI is unaffected, Petrovic in goal, Kroupi at 10, Tavernier on the left wing, and Evanilson at striker in a 4-2-3-1.

Crystal Palace Team News: Nketiah (hamstring, season over), Doucouré (knee, long-term), Muñoz (shoulder), and Guessand (injured April 16) are all ruled out; Mateta (knee), Wharton (adductor), and Lacroix (medial ligament) are all doubts following the Fiorentina second-leg injuries, with the Kraków trip on April 30 adding further risk ahead of this fixture.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

Verdict

Bournemouth are 13 matches unbeaten, playing at home, and chasing European football in Iraola's farewell season. Crystal Palace arrive on three days' rest from Poland, missing four certain starters and carrying three significant doubts. The Cherries are the play, back Bournemouth to win at 2.50 with Stake, combine it with Over 2.5 Goals, and get on Kroupi and Tavernier to score at any time.

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