Everton vs Manchester City, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Manchester City have not lost a Premier League match against Everton since January 2017, 17 consecutive unbeaten games (W13 D4) in that run.
Everton have zero wins from 7 home matches at Hill Dickinson Stadium with a 4:30pm or later kickoff, this match kicks off at 20:00 BST.
Haaland scored in back-to-back Premier League matches (Arsenal 65', Burnley 5') and has 24 PL goals this season, including a brace in the reverse fixture.
Everton are missing centre-back Branthwaite (season-ending) and have lost their last three Premier League matches, conceding 5 goals across those defeats.
City average 1.65 goals scored per away match this season and Everton score 1.29 per home game, the combined output points directly at Over 2.5.

Manchester City are in a title race with no margin for error, and they have arrived at Hill Dickinson Stadium against an Everton side that has lost three Premier League matches in a row and cannot win evening home games. The pick writes itself.

Kickoff: Monday 4 May 2026, 20:00 BST (21:00 WAT) at Hill Dickinson Stadium

Pep Guardiola's side trail Arsenal by 3 points but hold a game in hand. After winning 2-1 against Arsenal on 19 April and following that with a 1-0 win at Burnley, City have pulled themselves back into genuine contention. Guardiola said after the Burnley win: "The only chance for the title is to win all the games." Monday night at Bramley-Moore Dock is one of those games. There is no easing into it.

David Moyes picked up a positive result against Chelsea three weeks ago, Beto with a brace, Ndiaye completing the 3-0 rout, but Everton have not built on it. A draw at Brentford, a painful 2-1 home loss to Liverpool (Van Dijk in the 100th minute), and then a 2-1 defeat at West Ham have put three straight losses on the board. Branthwaite was stretchered off against Liverpool with a season-ending injury, and Beto missed the West Ham trip through concussion. The defensive spine is compromised and the form is dire.

City's away numbers underline the case. Guardiola's side have scored 28 goals in 17 away matches this season, averaging 1.65 per game, while conceding just 1.0 per away match with a 41% clean sheet rate. Everton's home xG sits at 1.47 per match but their xGA at home is 1.30, they create but they also concede. The Over 2.5 goals line at 1.67 reflects a match that City's firepower and Everton's defensive vulnerabilities should push beyond three goals. Stake have Manchester City to win at 1.54.

Beto is expected to return from his concussion protocol in time for this match, and he is the logical counter-argument, Everton's top scorer with 8 Premier League goals, backed by Moyes who praised his "effort to work" before the Liverpool derby. If Everton score, it will be through him. That is exactly the case for the Beto anytime scorer prop alongside Haaland, who is in the most dangerous form of any striker in England right now.

Take Manchester City to win and Over 2.5 Goals. Erling Haaland anytime scorer and Beto anytime scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

Manchester City have not lost a Premier League match against Everton since January 2017, that unbeaten run now stretches to 17 games (W13 D4). In the reverse fixture at the Etihad in October 2025, Haaland scored twice in a 2-0 win. The last five meetings produced an average of 2.6 goals per game. This is the first Premier League meeting at Hill Dickinson Stadium, City's last visit to Everton's home ground was Goodison Park in April 2025, where O'Reilly and Kovacic sealed a 2-0 win late.

Everton Form Analysis

Everton's last five Premier League results read W D L L L, and the context makes each defeat worse than the result alone. The 2-1 loss to Liverpool on 19 April was the first Merseyside derby at Hill Dickinson Stadium, Van Dijk headed in a winner in the 100th minute with Branthwaite already gone on a stretcher. Moyes was frustrated enough to criticise referee Kavanagh publicly. Seven days later at West Ham, Callum Wilson scored in the 92nd minute to make it 2-1. Beto was absent through concussion. Two late losses in a row.

The home record at Hill Dickinson tells a stark story: W6 D4 L7 across 17 Premier League matches this season. That is not the home fortress Moyes needed at a new stadium, and the evening record is particularly damaging. Everton have not won a single home match that kicked off at 4:30pm or later this season. Monday night at 20:00 BST is exactly that kind of fixture. The xGA at home is 1.30 per match, the clean sheet rate is 35%, and three of City's away wins have come without conceding. Branthwaite's absence leaves a significant void in central defence that Tarkowski or Keane will have to fill against Haaland.

Manchester City Form Analysis

City's last three Premier League results are three wins: 3-0 at Chelsea, 2-1 vs Arsenal, 1-0 at Burnley. The Arsenal result was the most significant of the season, Cherki opened, Donnarumma's blunder let Arsenal back in via Havertz, then Haaland drove home the winner with 25 minutes left. Guardiola backed the goalkeeper despite the error, and the squad's confidence has risen sharply. In the FA Cup semi-final on 25 April, City came from 1-0 down against Southampton to win 2-1 with Doku and Nico González scoring in the final ten minutes. The squad is winning when it matters.

Haaland is the focal point. He has scored in consecutive Premier League matches and reached 24 PL goals this season, adding 7 assists. Rayan Cherki has 14 assists in all competitions and is City's most creative outlet. The only concern in Guardiola's squad is Rodri, who left the Arsenal match with a groin issue and is doubtful for this fixture. City have won without him before, and with Bernardo Silva and Reijnders available to cover, the midfield should cope. Away xG is 1.69 per match, xGA is 1.20, this is a team built to dominate on the road.

Everton vs Manchester City Team News

Everton Team News: Branthwaite is out for the season (knee, stretchered off vs Liverpool 19 Apr); Grealish is also season-ending (foot injury, Jan 2026); Ndiaye is doubtful (injury confirmed 27 March, return date unclear); Beto is expected to return after clearing concussion protocols.

Manchester City Team News: Rodri is doubtful (groin, assessed day-to-day); Gvardiol is out long-term (broken leg since Jan 2026); Kovacic remains unavailable (ankle/heel surgery); Donnarumma, Nunes, Guéhi, Ake, O'Reilly, Reijnders, Cherki, Foden, Doku, Haaland and Marmoush are all fit and available.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

Verdict

Manchester City's 17-match unbeaten run against Everton in the Premier League does not end on a Monday night at a ground that has failed to produce a single evening home win all season. Haaland is in the form of his life with 24 PL goals, the title race demands maximum points from Guardiola's side, and Everton's defensive injuries leave them exposed. Back City to win and the game to go over 2.5 goals.

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