Leeds United vs Burnley, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Burnley have failed to keep a single clean sheet in 17 Premier League away games this season, conceding at an average of 2.47 goals per away trip.
Leeds are unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches (W2 D2 D1, 7 goals scored, 2 conceded) and carry a positive home goal difference of +5 from 17 home games.
Burnley have won just 1 of their last 25 Premier League games and head to Elland Road on an 8-game losing run, with relegation already confirmed on 22 April.
Burnley's away games have gone Over 2.5 goals in 71% of their 17 away fixtures this season, combining with Leeds' 59% home Over 2.5 rate to make goals the structural expectation.
Noah Okafor has scored 7 Premier League goals this season including a brace at Old Trafford on 13 April, Dominic Calvert-Lewin leads Leeds with 12 PL goals and is the designated penalty taker.

Burnley are already down and heading back to the Championship, confirmed on 22 April after a 1-0 home loss to Manchester City. Leeds United need the three points to cement Premier League safety and Elland Road on a Friday night is no place for a side with zero competitive incentive and no away clean sheet in 17 top-flight road trips.

Kickoff: Friday 1 May 2026, 20:00 BST (21:00 WAT) at Elland Road

Daniel Farke's side arrive at this fixture off the back of FA Cup semi-final heartbreak at Wembley, a 1-0 loss to Chelsea ended their cup run last Sunday, but the Premier League table is what matters now. Leeds sit 15th on 40 points, six clear of the drop zone, and three wins from their final four games would put any remaining concerns to bed. The home crowd will be fully charged for this one, and Scott Parker's squad, with relegation already sealed and their manager's future unclear, will bring minimal resistance.

The numbers on either side of this match tell the whole story. Leeds carry a home xG of 1.55 per game against a home xGA of 1.25, structurally sound at Elland Road, where they have won 7, drawn 5, and lost 5 across 17 home matches this season. Burnley's xGA away from Turf Moor sits at 1.90 per game, and they have conceded in every single away Premier League fixture this season. Not one clean sheet in 17 away trips. Their xG away is just 0.98, meaning they arrive in Leeds with almost no credible threat of keeping it tight at the back or finding the net consistently at the other end.

Stake have Leeds at 1.38 to win. That is a short price but the underlying numbers justify it. Calvert-Lewin has 12 Premier League goals this season and scored the penalty in Leeds' 3-0 home win over Wolves on 18 April. Okafor followed up his Old Trafford brace with a goal in that same Wolves demolition, making the Swiss forward the most dangerous attacking player at this club right now. Burnley have conceded 42 goals in 17 away games, Parker's back line simply does not hold. Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 follows directly from those numbers, with Burnley's away matches going over that line in 12 of 17 away fixtures (71%) and Leeds' home games clearing it in 59% of outings.

Take Leeds to win and Over 2.5 goals. Dominic Calvert-Lewin anytime scorer and Noah Okafor anytime scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

In 67 all-time meetings, Leeds lead 34 wins to 20, with 13 draws and 110 goals scored to Burnley's 84. In the six Premier League-era meetings specifically, Leeds have won 3, Burnley 2, with 1 draw. The reverse fixture this season, Burnley 2-0 Leeds at Turf Moor on 18 October 2025, was Burnley's best result of the campaign, with Leeds holding 68.5% possession but failing to register a shot on target. The last Premier League meeting at Elland Road was a 3-1 Leeds win in January 2022. Over 2.5 goals landed in just 2 of the last 5 competitive meetings at H2H level, but Burnley's current away profile this season overrides that historical pattern, their 71% over 2.5 away hit rate is the key figure here.

Leeds United Form Analysis

Leeds went into Wembley on 26 April on a seven-match unbeaten run across all competitions. Chelsea's 1-0 win ended that run, but Farke will be quick to frame this Friday fixture as the reset. In Premier League terms, Leeds have not lost in five matches, two wins and two draws, scoring 7 goals and conceding just 2 in that run. The standout result was the 2-1 win at Old Trafford on 13 April, where Okafor scored inside five minutes and doubled the lead by the 29th minute. The 3-0 home win over Wolves on 18 April was equally commanding, with Justin, Okafor, and Calvert-Lewin all finding the net.

The 2-2 draw at Bournemouth on 22 April, which secured the 40th point, was less convincing, Leeds conceded twice in the final 30 minutes before Longstaff's 90+7th-minute equaliser saved the point, but 40 points with four games remaining and a +5 home goal difference speaks to genuine progress under Farke. At home, Leeds have scored 25 goals in 17 games and their season xG of 49.27 outstrips the goals-against column. The squad is battered by injuries, Gruev is out for the season, Gudmundsson limped off at Wembley, Sinisterra and Tyler Adams are long gone, but Calvert-Lewin, Okafor, and the core of Ampadu, Rodon, and Tanaka are available and form a coherent starting unit.

Burnley Form Analysis

Eight straight league defeats. One win in the last 25 Premier League matches. Relegation confirmed with four games to spare. Burnley's season has been a collapse from which there is no recovery. The 1-4 thrashing at Nottingham Forest on 19 April, in which Morgan Gibbs-White scored a hat-trick in 15 minutes, was the defining image of where this squad is. The 0-1 home loss to Manchester City on 22 April, which sealed their fate, was almost merciful in its brevity.

Parker said after relegation: "I can't be critical of this team." He also gave no clarity on his future at the club. A manager with an uncertain future, a squad with nothing to play for, and a travel record of 2 wins from 17 away trips. Burnley have scored just 19 goals in those 17 away matches and conceded 42. Their xG away sits at 0.98 per game, barely threatening. Zian Flemming carries the bulk of the attacking threat with 9 PL goals (5 away), and Jaidon Anthony (7 PL goals) is targeting a return from injury. Hannibal Mejbri (hamstring) is Parker's most creative player and is targeting this game as a return date. Even at full strength, this is a relegated squad facing a motivated home side with a crowd behind them.

Leeds United vs Burnley Team News

Leeds United Team News: Gabriel Gudmundsson (hamstring, suffered at Wembley) is unlikely to feature; Ilia Gruev (meniscus) is out for the season; Luis Sinisterra (ankle) and Tyler Adams (thigh) are also unavailable; Anton Stach (ankle ligament) is a doubt but targeting a return to the midfield double pivot; Jayden Bogle (foot) and Sebastiaan Bornauw (ankle) are further doubts at fullback; Joe Rodon returned for the Wolves win and should be fit; Calvert-Lewin and Okafor are available.

Burnley Team News: Zeki Amdouni (cruciate ligament) and Connor Roberts (knee setback) are definitely out; Hannibal Mejbri (hamstring) is targeting a return for this game, Parker said "heading towards Leeds is a better option", and could slot in as the number 10 if passed fit; Jordan Beyer (hamstring) remains a doubt; Flemming, Anthony, and Hartman are expected to start.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

Verdict

Leeds United to win at 1.38 on Stake is the anchor bet, a relegated Burnley side without an away clean sheet all season and 8 straight league defeats offers nothing to suggest they can take anything from Elland Road on a Friday night. Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 follows from Burnley's 71% away over rate and Leeds' 59% home rate. Calvert-Lewin at sub-2.00 anytime scorer is the strongest individual prop in this match, with Okafor at 2.50 offering genuine value after his brace at Old Trafford just 18 days ago.

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