Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Chelsea

VS

Nottingham Forest

Chelsea have been a mess in the league, five straight Premier League defeats without a goal, a run that cost Liam Rosenior his job on 22 April. But interim boss Calum McFarlane steadied the ship at Wembley last weekend, and a 1-0 FA Cup semi-final win over Leeds is exactly the kind of reset this group needed before Forest come to Stamford Bridge.

Kickoff: Monday 4 May 2026, 15:00 BST (16:00 WAT) at Stamford Bridge

The league form is ugly, no question. Five consecutive Premier League losses, all without scoring, is the worst goalless losing streak Chelsea have suffered since 1912. But the context matters. Those defeats came with Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer both absent through injury. Pedro, Chelsea's top scorer with 14 Premier League goals, returned for the FA Cup semi, hit the post, and looked sharp throughout. Palmer came off the bench at 71 minutes. Both are expected to feature against Forest. That is a fundamentally different attacking unit to the one that went quiet for six weeks.

Stake have Chelsea to win at 1.83, and that price is workable. The home xG of 1.71 per match at Stamford Bridge is among the better numbers in the division. Chelsea create chances, they have just been burying none. Forest arrive with a mediocre away record of W6 D3 L8 and are without centre-back Murillo, who has missed both recent Forest games with a muscle injury. Callum Hudson-Odoi is already gone for the season after quadriceps surgery. Vitor Pereira's squad is stretched.

Forest's recent form is genuinely impressive, a hat-trick from Morgan Gibbs-White in 15 minutes against Burnley, then a dominant 5-0 demolition of Sunderland on 24 April. Gibbs-White has 13 Premier League goals this season and is the form player in the fixture. The danger is real. But Forest have also been playing Europa League semi-final football against Aston Villa, and travel fatigue plus squad depth are legitimate concerns for a side that has rotated heavily this month.

The goals case is strong from both sides. Chelsea's home Over 2.5 rate stands at 53% this season, and Forest's away Over 2.5 rate is 59%. The average goals total for this fixture across FootyStats data is 2.68. Forest have conceded 1.41 goals per away game all season. With Chelsea's attackers back, the drought ends here. Take Chelsea Win at 1.83 and Over 2.5 Goals. Morgan Gibbs-White anytime scorer and Joao Pedro anytime scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

Chelsea lead the last five Premier League meetings with a W3 D1 L1 record, scoring 8 goals to Forest's 3. The reverse fixture this season ended 3-0 to Chelsea at City Ground in October. Before that, Chelsea won 0-1 at City Ground in May 2025 and 2-3 at the City Ground in May 2024. Forest's only win in the last five came at Stamford Bridge in September 2023 (0-1). In the last 10 all-time Premier League meetings, Chelsea lead with 6 wins to Forest's 1, with 3 draws.

Chelsea Form Analysis

Chelsea's last five Premier League results read LLLLL. Brighton beat them 3-0 on 21 April, the fifth straight defeat, the fifth straight game without a goal, and the result that ended Rosenior's tenure the following morning. Prior to that: 0-1 to Manchester United, 0-3 to Manchester City, 3-0 to Everton, and 0-1 to Newcastle. That is a collective low point by any measure.

The mitigation is the injuries. Joao Pedro missed the Manchester United and Brighton games with a thigh problem. Palmer missed the same two with his hamstring. Both returned for the FA Cup semi-final against Leeds on 26 April, Chelsea won 1-0, with Enzo Fernandez scoring the winner. It was Chelsea's first win in six games across all competitions, and the first time they scored in six. McFarlane also has the FA Cup final against Manchester City on 16 May to focus minds. The camp is not in freefall. Their home xG of 1.71 per match has not moved, they simply stopped converting.

Estevao Willian is out for the season with a hamstring injury. Filip Jorgensen is out until mid-May after groin surgery. Mudryk remains suspended. But the core is returning, and at Stamford Bridge against a porous Forest away defence, Chelsea's xG profile makes them the right side to back.

Nottingham Forest Form Analysis

Forest have been one of the stories of the spring. Vitor Pereira, appointed on 15 February as the club's fourth manager of a chaotic 2025-26 season, has hauled them clear of the relegation fight. From the danger zone to 16th on 39 points, 8 clear of the drop zone. The Sunderland result, a 5-0 rout on 24 April with three goals in the first 37 minutes, showed exactly what Forest look like when Gibbs-White fires. He scored the hat-trick against Burnley the week before (62', 69', 74') and got a goal and an assist at Sunderland. In the last two league games, he has contributed 4 goals directly.

The last five Premier League results: WWDWD. That is the form of a team that has sorted itself out under a pragmatic manager. The win at Spurs (3-0 on 22 March) was the inflection point. Since then, Forest have not lost in the league. The concern travelling to Stamford Bridge is the away record away from that hot streak, W6 D3 L8 for the season as a whole, and the Europa League commitments against Villa that have put mileage on Pereira's squad.

Away xG of 1.25 per game tells you Forest are not the dominant force on the road they are at the City Ground. They concede 1.41 away, and with Murillo absent, that backline is less reliable than it looks on the recent scoresheet. Chris Wood manages a chronic knee condition and is rated fit after scoring against Sunderland, but Forest's depth is tested.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Forest Team News

Chelsea Team News: Joao Pedro assessed after returning from thigh injury for FA Cup semi-final (26 Apr); Cole Palmer expected to feature after coming off the bench vs Leeds; Estevao Willian (hamstring, season-ending), Filip Jorgensen (groin surgery, mid-May), Mudryk (doping ban), and Levi Colwill (ACL) all unavailable; Reece James (hamstring) is a possible return from the bench.

Nottingham Forest Team News: Murillo out with a muscle injury sustained against Burnley and not expected to return for this fixture; Callum Hudson-Odoi out for the season after quadriceps surgery; Dan Ndoye fit after a minor setback, returned against Sunderland; Chris Wood fit after managing his knee condition.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

• Leeds United vs Burnley
• Brentford vs West Ham
• Newcastle vs Brighton
• Wolves vs Sunderland
• Arsenal vs Fulham
• Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace
• Manchester United vs Liverpool
• Aston Villa vs Tottenham
• Everton vs Manchester City

More to know

• Chelsea's home xG of 1.71 per match comfortably exceeds Forest's away xG of 1.25, while Forest concede 1.41 goals per away game, the underlying numbers support goals at Stamford Bridge.
• Forest's last two PL outings produced 9 goals (4-1 vs Burnley, 5-0 vs Sunderland), and their away Over 2.5 rate of 59% this season tilts the Goals Total market toward three or more.

Verdict

Chelsea's five-match Premier League scoreless streak carries less weight with Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer back in the picture, and the FA Cup semi-final win over Leeds has given McFarlane's interim setup a genuine platform. The head-to-head record is firmly in Chelsea's favour, W3 D1 L1 in the last five meetings, including a 3-0 win at City Ground this season, and Forest travel to London with a depleted squad and a busy Europa League schedule. Back Chelsea to win at 1.83 on Stake and add Over 2.5 Goals; Gibbs-White's red-hot form makes his anytime scorer prop the standout on the Forest side.

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