Arsenal vs Fulham, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Arsenal have won 13 of 17 home league games this season, keeping 9 clean sheets, a 53% clean sheet rate that is the foundation of this Under 2.5 call.
Fulham have won just 4 of 17 away fixtures in 2025-26, scoring only 16 goals in those 17 games (0.94 per game) and failing to score in 41% of away matches.
Three of the last five head-to-head meetings between these sides went Under 2.5 goals, including Arsenal's 1-0 win at Craven Cottage in the reverse fixture this season.
Viktor Gyokeres leads Arsenal with 12 Premier League goals this season, with Havertz doubtful and Merino already out, the creative load and finishing duty runs directly through the Swedish striker.
Fulham arrive without Iwobi (hamstring), Sessegnon (muscle), Tete (foot), and Macedo, a depleted squad that thins their wide and defensive options severely ahead of a trip to an Emirates side that has conceded just 11 home goals all season.

Arsenal cannot afford a slip. Three points clear of Manchester City with four games left, Mikel Arteta's side host a Fulham team with four away wins all season and a squad ravaged by injury. The Emirates fortress holds, and it holds tight.

Kickoff: Saturday 2 May 2026, 17:30 BST (18:30 WAT) at Emirates Stadium

Arsenal reclaimed top spot with a nervy 1-0 win over Newcastle on 25 April, Eberechi Eze's early finish moving them back above City after the 2-1 defeat at the Etihad five days prior. City hold a game in hand, so Arsenal know every dropped point could cost them the title. Opta put Arsenal's title probability at 65.36% heading into this week. Fulham at home is a game Arsenal must take three points from.

The case for Arsenal to win and win without conceding is built on two things: what they do at the Emirates and what Fulham fail to do away from Craven Cottage. Arsenal's home record reads W13 D2 L2 from 17 matches, with 37 goals scored and just 11 conceded. Their xGA per home match is 0.83 - the defensive solidity is not an illusion. Fulham's away record is the mirror image: 4 wins from 17 road trips, 16 goals scored (0.94 per game), a goals-against figure of 27, and a failed-to-score rate of 41%. Marco Silva's side are comfortable at the Cottage; on the road against a top-four side in this form, they are a different team entirely.

The Under 2.5 Goals line at 2.14 is where the real value sits in this fixture. Arsenal's home games go Over 2.5 in 59% of cases - not a dominant over market. Fulham's away games go Over 2.5 in just 47% of matches. Three of the last five meetings between these clubs went Under 2.5. The reverse fixture this season finished 1-0 to Arsenal at Craven Cottage. The model points to a 2-0 Arsenal win as the most likely scoreline, which lands Under comfortably. Stake have Arsenal to win at 1.45.

Eze and Havertz are doubts after niggles in the Newcastle win, but Saka returned from injury and Arteta confirmed he looked sharp and fit. He should start against a Fulham side missing Iwobi, Sessegnon, and Tete on the flanks. Saka against a stretched Fulham right side is the individual matchup that wins this game.

Take Arsenal Win @1.45 and Under 2.5 Goals @2.14. Viktor Gyokeres anytime scorer and Bukayo Saka anytime scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

Arsenal's Premier League record against Fulham is W21 D9 L5 from 35 matches, 70 goals scored to Fulham's 29. At the Emirates, Arsenal have won 12, drawn 2, and lost 1 home league meeting all-time. The last five fixtures: Arsenal 1-0 at Craven Cottage (October 2025), Arsenal 2-1 at the Emirates (April 2025), 1-1 at Craven Cottage (December 2024), Fulham 2-1 at Craven Cottage (December 2023), 2-2 at the Emirates (August 2023). Three of those five went Under 2.5 goals.

Arsenal Form Analysis

The last-five reads W, L, L, W, W, but both defeats have asterisks. The 2-1 loss at City came via a Haaland winner in a match Arteta felt Arsenal were denied a clear red card. The 0-0 home draw with Sporting CP was the UCL semi-final first leg, a controlled performance in a two-legged tie. The underlying league form is solid.

At the Emirates this season, Arsenal are averaging 2.18 goals scored per home game against just 0.65 conceded. Their xG for per home match is 1.83; their xGA is 0.83. Nine home clean sheets from 17 games. Viktor Gyokeres, signed in the summer, has 12 Premier League goals in 30 appearances and is the focal point of everything Arsenal build in attack. Bukayo Saka (6 goals, 4 assists), Leandro Trossard (5 goals, 5 assists), and Declan Rice (4 goals, 5 assists) provide width and secondary goal threat around him.

Fulham Form Analysis

Fulham sit 10th and their last-five form of W, D, L, D, W is reasonable. But both wins came at Craven Cottage. Away from home, the story is categorically different.

Fulham's away xG for is 1.26 per match; their xGA away is 1.50. That is a side that concedes more than it creates on the road. Their away goals-against total of 27 from 17 games (1.59 per match) tells the same story. Harry Wilson (10 goals, 6 assists) is their most dangerous operator and the one player who can change a game. Raul Jimenez (9 goals) is the striker, but his fitness requires monitoring given injury issues this season. Without Iwobi, Sessegnon (now also injured after scoring the Villa winner), and Tete, Fulham arrive at the Emirates with thinned wide resources and limited options to hurt Arsenal in transition.

Arsenal vs Fulham Team News

Arsenal Team News: Merino (foot) and Timber (muscle) are confirmed absentees; Havertz and Eze are doubts after niggles in the Newcastle win, with Nwaneri on standby if Eze misses; Saka is expected to start or feature heavily after his sharp cameo; Saliba, Gabriel, Rice, Zubimendi, and Gyokeres are all available.

Fulham Team News: Iwobi (hamstring, mid-May), Sessegnon (muscle, mid-May), Tete (foot, early May), and Macedo (leg) are all absent; Wilson leads the attack alongside Jimenez, whose fitness should be confirmed before kick-off; Leno starts in goal.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

Verdict

Arsenal's Emirates fortress, W13, 9 home clean sheets, 11 goals conceded all season, is too strong for a Fulham side missing Iwobi, Sessegnon, and Tete, and winning just 4 of 17 away games. With the title race on a knife edge and every home game a pressure test, Arteta's squad delivers here. Back Arsenal to win at 1.45 on Stake, combine with Under 2.5 Goals at 2.14, and ride Gyokeres and Saka as the anytime scorer picks.

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