Newcastle vs Brighton, Premier League Matchweek 35 2026 - Expert Prediction

Newcastle have lost four consecutive Premier League games, conceding in each one, and sit 14th on 42 points with European hopes all but gone.
Brighton arrive in W-W-W-D-W form across their last five league outings, including a 3-0 demolition of Chelsea at the Amex on 21 April.
Danny Welbeck has scored 13 Premier League goals this season and delivered a brace in the reverse fixture at the Amex in October 2025.
Newcastle have conceded in 82% of their home matches this season, averaging 1.65 goals against per game, the BTTS rate at St James' Park stands at 76%.
Brighton have won at St James' Park in two of the last three visits across all competitions, including a 0-1 Premier League win in October 2024 and a 1-2 FA Cup win in March 2025.

Newcastle have lost four straight Premier League games and are running out of road. Brighton arrive at St James' Park in the form of a team that has figured out how to win, and a depleted Magpies side offers them another opportunity to take points on the road.

Kickoff: Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 BST (16:00 WAT) at St James’ Park

Eddie Howe's side are 14th, on 42 points, with the European dream Howe chased all season reduced to five wins that never came. Four consecutive defeats, all with goals against, tell the story plainly. Brighton, by contrast, sit sixth on 50 points, hunting Europa League football, and have dropped just one result in their last five, a 2-2 draw at Tottenham when Georginio Rutter levelled in the 95th minute. Fabian Hürzeler has this squad playing with clarity and purpose, pressing high, managing key moments, and grinding results when the football doesn't flow. That is exactly the kind of opponent Newcastle cannot handle right now.

Newcastle's injury list makes a bad situation worse. Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento are both out. Alexander Isak left for Liverpool in January and that void has never been filled. Anthony Gordon is doubtful with a hip injury, Howe said "hopefully the next one" after the Arsenal game, but that was no guarantee. Without Gordon, the attacking burden falls on Nick Woltemade, who has 7 Premier League goals from 29 appearances, Jacob Murphy, and whichever combination Howe fields on the left. Bruno Guimaraes has returned to full training, which matters, but one returning midfielder does not solve the structural problems this team has carried for months. Stake have Brighton AH +0.5 at 1.52, that is the number to take here.

Brighton's own injury issues are real. Diego Gomez's knee meniscus damage forces a midfield reshuffle, and Stefanos Tzimas and Adam Webster are both done for the season. But none of those absences touch Welbeck, who leads with 13 Premier League goals and an xG of 11.31 this season. He scored twice in the reverse fixture. Hürzeler will field his best available XI at a ground where Brighton have taken positive results in each of the last three visits, and the pressing system will not change regardless of who fills Gomez's role. Brighton's away xGA of 1.51 per game is manageable, and Newcastle's depleted attack, averaging 1.55 xG per game at home, will be tested by a Brighton line that presses and transitions quickly.

BTTS Yes at 1.60 makes sense alongside the AH. Newcastle score in their home games, 30 goals in 17 home matches, averaging 1.76 per game, and Woltemade scored in the reverse fixture. Brighton carry real attacking threat through Welbeck, Rutter, and Mitoma. The combined BTTS rate across FootyStats models sits at 65%, and the Newcastle home BTTS rate is 76%. Both teams have the firepower to find the net. Take Brighton AH +0.5 and BTTS Yes. Danny Welbeck anytime scorer and Nick Woltemade anytime scorer are the top player props.

Head to Head

In the Premier League era, Brighton lead this fixture with 10 wins to Newcastle's 5, with 8 draws across 23 meetings. The last five head-to-heads have produced 9 goals at an average of 1.8 per game, with BTTS landing in 2 of those 5. The reverse fixture this season ended Brighton 2-1 Newcastle, Welbeck scored twice, Woltemade pulled one back in the 76th minute, and Welbeck hit the winner in the 84th. At St James' Park, Newcastle have lost their last two competitive home fixtures against Brighton: 0-1 in the Premier League in October 2024 and 1-2 in the FA Cup fifth round in March 2025.

Newcastle United Form Analysis

Four losses in a row is the headline, but the detail is just as damaging. Newcastle lost 0-2 at Sunderland in March, then 1-2 at Crystal Palace after conceding a 94th-minute penalty from Mateta. Bournemouth came to St James' Park and left with three points via a Truffert late winner. Arsenal beat them 0-1 at the Emirates with an Eze goal. In those four games, Newcastle have scored twice and conceded seven. The confidence issue Howe referenced after the Arsenal game, "the players may be lacking some confidence", is understated. This is a team that cannot hold a result or find a clean sheet.

Across the full season, Newcastle average 1.55 xG per game and 1.39 xGA. The home record is 8 wins, 2 draws, 7 losses, reasonable on paper until you look at the trajectory. The last confirmed home win was against Manchester United in early March. Since then, Bournemouth came to Tyneside and won. The loss of Isak in January stripped the one player capable of turning a half-chance into a goal. Woltemade leads with 7, but he needs service, and a Newcastle midfield missing Livramento's energy in wide areas struggles to create the openings their striker needs.

Brighton & Hove Albion Form Analysis

Brighton's last four results read: W 2-1 Liverpool, W 2-0 Burnley, D 2-2 Tottenham, W 3-0 Chelsea. The Chelsea game was particularly emphatic, Kadioglu, Hinshelwood, and Minteh all scored in a dominant display. Wieffer scored twice in the Burnley win. Rutter, who has 7 assists and 3 goals in 28 Premier League appearances, has been central to the creativity running through Hürzeler's system. The 2-2 at Spurs is the only blemish, and even then Brighton led until the 95th minute.

Away from home, Brighton's record is W5 D5 L7, averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per away game. The xG numbers away are 1.39 for and 1.51 against, a slight structural deficit on the road, but one that form and individual quality can overcome. Hürzeler has made clear his team will not adjust their pressing approach for this fixture. They will press high at St James' Park the same way they press everywhere. Against a Newcastle side short on confidence and missing key personnel, that approach is well placed to produce another positive result.

Newcastle vs Brighton Team News

Newcastle Team News: Fabian Schar (ankle), Emil Krafth (knee), and Tino Livramento (leg) are confirmed out; Anthony Gordon is doubtful with a hip injury but Howe indicated he could be available for this one; Bruno Guimaraes has returned to full training and is expected to start; Nick Woltemade leads the attack.

Brighton Team News: Diego Gomez (knee meniscus) is out for 4-6 weeks; Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas are both ruled out for the season; Julio Enciso remains unavailable; James Milner was approaching a return before the Tottenham game and may feature; Danny Welbeck, Kaoru Mitoma, and Georginio Rutter are all expected to start.

Other Matchweek 35 tips

Cross-check our calls for the rest of the EPL Matchweek 35 slate:

Verdict

Brighton arrive at St James' Park in confident form against a Newcastle side that has lost four straight and is missing key players across the pitch. The visitors have won at this ground in two of the last three competitive visits, Welbeck is the danger man with 13 Premier League goals, and Hürzeler's pressing system is built to exploit teams low on confidence. Back Brighton AH +0.5 at 1.52 and BTTS Yes at 1.60, with Welbeck and Woltemade, who both scored in the reverse fixture, as the top player props.

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